Hattrick Match Analysis

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Predictor v2.0

news v 2.0: new improved formula for realization chance! (formula explained in italian)
news v 1.9: longshot tactic is now included

The HTMS match predictor is a tool that tells you how should have ended a match with some specific ratings. The calculation of the prediction has been made deeply analyzing lots of matched downloaded from hattrick. The study results are available here: Realization

If you want to calculate the results of the whole season of a specific serie, use this tool instead: Table of statistical truth

The predictor makes the following assumptions:
  • Special Events are not taken into account
  • Default set pieces chance of realization is set to 50%
  • If tactic level is not set, excellent is taken as prediction value
  • Tactic effectiveness should take in account the medium skill level of players in the field. Since this is not possible, the medium level is taken from the total hatstats of the match
  • CA tactic taken in account is the new one, the one that is active since january 2010. The effectiveness is calculated with a bynomial progression starting from the total hatstats of the match
How is the result calculated?

Team ATeam B
Ratingscore chanceRatingscore chance
Midfield
Right defense
Central defense
Left defense
Right attack
%
%
Central attack
%
%
Left attack
%
%
Tactic
Level of tactic
Chance of set pieces realization


Get the matches of a team from internal DB
teamid:

Get matchid function disapproved from CHPP staff thus is disabled. Will be replaced by htmsStatistics module on new forxtrick release: 0.4.9
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