Hattrick Match Analysis

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Predictor v2.0

ATTENTION My service provider decided that my site is generating too much traffic thus is shutting down the service from time to time. I've close the possibility to make prediction directly into hattrick via foxtrick but it seems not enough. That's why the predictor will not work well, or won't work at all, in the next day. I'm trying to find a solution but it could take some time. Sorry.

Il mio provider internet ha deciso che HTMS genera troppo traffico e quindi ogni tanto blocca il servizio. Ho disabilitato la possibilità di effettuare predizioni tramite foxtrick ma sembra non sia abbastanza. Quindi qualche volta il predictor non funzionerà bene e qualche altra non funzionerà del tutto. Sto cercando una soluzione alternativa ma ci potrebbe volere diverso tempo. Spiacente.

news v 2.0: new improved formula for realization chance! (formula explained in italian)
news v 1.9: longshot tactic is now included

The HTMS match predictor is a tool that tells you how should have ended a match with some specific ratings. The calculation of the prediction has been made deeply analyzing lots of matched downloaded from hattrick. The study results are available here: RĂ©alisation

If you want to calculate the results of the whole season of a specific serie, use this tool instead: Table of statistical truth

Le prédicteur fait les hypothèses suivantes :
  • Les Ă©vĂ©nements spĂ©ciaux ne sont pas pris en compte
  • La chance de marquer sur Coup franc est fixĂ© Ă  50%
  • If tactic level is not set, excellent is taken as prediction value
  • Tactic effectiveness should take in account the medium skill level of players in the field. Since this is not possible, the medium level is taken from the total hatstats of the match
  • CA tactic taken in account is the new one, the one that is active since january 2010. The effectiveness is calculated with a bynomial progression starting from the total hatstats of the match
How is the result calculated?

Équipe AÉquipe B
Evaluationchance de butEvaluationchance de but
DĂ©fense Lat. Droite
DĂ©fense Centrale
DĂ©fense Lat. Gauche
Attaque Aile Droite
Attaque Centrale
Attaque Aile Gauche
Level of tactic
Chance of set pieces realization

Obtenir les matchs de l'équipe depuis la base de données interne

Get matchid function disapproved from CHPP staff thus is disabled. Will be replaced by htmsStatistics module on new forxtrick release: 0.4.9
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